The Practice P&L Sensitivity Tool.

A working Excel Calculator that forward-models a UK general practice's profit-and-loss statement across three scenarios — base case, optimistic case, pessimistic case — so the user can see what the next three years actually look like under different sets of assumptions.

What this Calculator is for.

A single year's P&L tells you what happened. It does not tell you what is likely to happen, or what would happen if the funding mix changed, or how sensitive the partnership's drawings are to a 5% shift in staff costs or a 10% change in list size. Those questions require modelling, and modelling a UK general practice P&L correctly means accounting for the specific structure of UK NHS funding — Global Sum, QOF, Carr-Hill weighting, enhanced services, the seasonality of QOF achievement — and the specific cost structures of UK general practice.

This Calculator does that work. The user enters a small number of practice-specific inputs (list size, weighting, current staff costs, premises arrangement). The Calculator produces three years of projected P&L under each of three scenarios, plus sensitivity analysis on the variables that materially move the bottom line.

What's inside.

Seven sheets in a single Excel file, plus an accompanying PDF user guide.

1. Inputs — practice-specific data the user enters once
2. Assumptions — the UK 2026/27 funding parameters and cost benchmarks, all visible and editable
3. Scenarios — the three forward-looking cases the Calculator runs
4. P&L projections — three years' projected P&L for each scenario
5. Sensitivity — how the bottom line responds to changes in the variables that most affect it
6. Summary — a one-page output the user can print or screenshot
7. Methodology — what the Calculator does, what it doesn't do, and where its assumptions are documented

The accompanying PDF user guide explains how to use each sheet, how to read the outputs, and where the Calculator's assumptions sit relative to current UK practice norms.

What the inputs are.

The Calculator is designed to be useable by a partner or practice manager who does not specialise in modelling. The inputs are practice facts, not assumptions about the future — list size, current staff complement, current premises arrangement, current QOF achievement rate. The forward-looking scenarios are constructed by the Calculator from those facts plus the UK funding parameters; the user does not have to model the future themselves.

The full set of UK 2026/27 parameters used by the Calculator — Global Sum per weighted patient, QOF point value, Carr-Hill weighting structure, employer NI rates, and the rest — is visible in the Assumptions sheet. Editable for users whose practice circumstances differ from the defaults. Transparent so a reader can audit what the Calculator is doing.

What you do with the output.

"A sensitivity analysis is not a prediction. It is a structured account of what would happen under different assumptions, which is a different and more honest thing. The use of a sensitivity tool is not to know what the future will be — it is to know which variables matter, which do not, and where the partnership's exposure actually lies."

— from the PDF user guide, Reading the output

The Calculator's output supports four kinds of decision: evaluating a partnership offer against the practice's likely future trajectory, planning the partnership's drawings over the next three years, identifying which costs are worth most management attention, and presenting a financial picture to the bank, a prospective partner, or the partners themselves.

Who it's for.

• GPs considering a partnership offer. The Calculator turns the practice's current P&L into a three-year forward view of what the partnership is actually offering.
• New partners planning their first year. The Calculator's drawings projection tells you what's available to draw without endangering the practice's working capital position.
• Practice managers and partners briefing the partnership. The summary output is the financial picture the partnership board actually needs.

What this Calculator is not.

It is a tool, not regulated advice. It will not tell you whether to accept a partnership offer, value a particular practice, or replace your accountant's work. The Calculator's assumptions are based on UK 2026/27 parameters; using the Calculator with materially different parameters (for example, for a Welsh practice with different funding arrangements, or for a year for which the parameters have changed) requires updating the Assumptions sheet, and the user is responsible for verifying those updates.

It is also focused on UK NHS general practice specifically. It does not model a UK private medical practice; it does not model a hospital department; it does not model a federation or PCN at the entity level.

What's related.

If this Calculator answers what does the future look like, two other shipped products answer the adjacent questions:

• Reading a GP P&L Without Flinching — the Guide that explains how to read the kind of P&L this Calculator forward-models. £39.
• The Practice P&L Diagnostic — runs three years of historical P&Ls through an anomaly detection framework. The Diagnostic looks backwards; the Sensitivity Tool looks forwards. £89.